ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 1:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ppluselevenmmrloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 12 games
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 9 games
pluselevenmmr
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 431 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 406 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 631 bans
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:14
Level UP 58%pluselevenmmr 42%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 35:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 58%
Series resultLevel UP 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1