European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 9 games
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 8 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 7 games
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 6 games
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 31 game
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 17 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 17 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
563 picks · 569 bans
Tiny
418 picks · 415 bans
Tusk
377 picks · 392 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 523 bans
Dark Willow
332 picks · 200 bans
Terrorblade
330 picks · 720 bans
Nature's Prophet
325 picks · 608 bans
Puck
305 picks · 776 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total75% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Level UP 25%Runa Team 75%
The model gave 75% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 2prediction correct
Level UP 25%Runa Team 75%
The model gave 75% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 3prediction missed
Level UP 25%Runa Team 75%
The model gave 75% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Level UP.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 75%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3