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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 20 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 17 games
71%
Techies
Techiessignature
Htrd · 17 games
88%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 16 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 14 games
57%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Htrd · 13 games
69%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
Htrd · 13 games
77%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Bb3px · 12 games
75%

Rune Eaters

Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 21 game
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 20 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Malik · 17 games
41%
Windranger
Windranger
yowaai · 17 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 16 games
38%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
yowaai · 16 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ankou · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Kidaro · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
499 picks · 352 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
353 picks · 638 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
350 picks · 398 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
326 picks · 178 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 454 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 341 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
302 picks · 574 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
299 picks · 226 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:38
Level UP 51%Rune Eaters 49%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 48:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWoE
50% · 117 games50% · 221 game
Kezrincyq
Kez
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
51% · 280 games51% · 242 games
UnderlordMalik
Underlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAinkrad
45% · 185 games45% · 298 games
PangolierCopy
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesHtrd
49% · 151 game56% · 151 game
Keeper of the LightEkki
Keeper of the Light
Windranger
Windrangerqueezy
54% · 268 games48% · 89 games
Lichaik
Lich
Game 2prediction missed46:27
Level UP 48%Rune Eaters 52%
The model gave 52% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Level UP in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenWoE
42% · 147 games59% · 232 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Enigma
EnigmaBb3px
49% · 121 game46% · 50 games
Drow Rangerrincyq
Drow Ranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAinkrad
46% · 484 games52% · 395 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Techies
TechiesHtrd
47% · 197 games54% · 112 games
Undyingaik
Undying
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
41% · 234 games59% · 394 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct38:48
Level UP 50%Rune Eaters 50%
The model gave 50% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 53:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBb3px
52% · 211 games46% · 348 games
Tinyrincyq
Tiny
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerWoE
63% · 4 games48% · 72 games
LycanMalik
Lycan
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
53% · 440 games59% · 51 game
SlarkCopy
Slark
Lich
LichHtrd
48% · 104 games49% · 59 games
Miranaaik
Mirana
Lion
Lionqueezy
52% · 161 game47% · 390 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 51%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3