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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
86%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
swedenstrong · 13 games
46%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
42%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Lorenof · 9 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 9 games
67%

SIBE Team

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 13 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 12 games
83%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 10 games
70%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
emptiness · 9 games
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
erase · 7 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Rein · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 435 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
232 picks · 321 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
218 picks · 325 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
206 picks · 106 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
204 picks · 181 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
197 picks · 273 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
194 picks · 394 bans
55%
Kunkka
Kunkka
184 picks · 519 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% SIBE Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:35
Level UP 48%SIBE Team 52%
The model gave 52% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 45:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterFocus
43% · 58 games59% · 39 games
Puckряф^^
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBor@nija
50% · 75 games53% · 21 game
Troll Warlordnesfeer
Troll Warlord
Pudge
PudgeMikSa`
42% · 32 games52% · 46 games
Primal Beastklassnokruto
Primal Beast
65% · 9 games
Weaverqueezy
Weaver
51% · 50 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed33:26
Level UP 48%SIBE Team 52%
The model gave 52% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Level UP in 45:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaFocus
50% · 104 games43% · 51 game
Linanesfeer
Lina
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerBor@nija
57% · 29 games46% · 60 games
Timbersawklassnokruto
Timbersaw
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMikSa`
55% · 165 games55% · 19 games
Windrangerряф^^
Windranger
45% · 7 games
Weaverqueezy
Weaver
46% · 161 game
Treant ProtectorRein
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed22:49
Level UP 52%SIBE Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 1:00:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageFocus
55% · 68 games49% · 178 games
Morphlingnesfeer
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierBor@nija
56% · 276 games48% · 149 games
Batriderряф^^
Batrider
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMikSa`
57% · 190 games43% · 37 games
Visageklassnokruto
Visage
36% · 73 games
Marciqueezy
Marci
40% · 97 games
Crystal MaidenRein
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 50%
Series resultSIBE Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3