EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TATeam Aionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Windranger
chempik · 9 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 8 games
Techiessignature
Htrd · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
Lich
Htrd · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
Team Aion
Clockwerkoften banned
Krinzhik · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 2 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Dazzle
Krinzhik · 1 game
Lina
Mo13ei · 1 game
Lion
xsvampire · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
400 picks · 240 bans
Tiny
342 picks · 353 bans
Clockwerk
334 picks · 631 bans
Windranger
321 picks · 233 bans
Pangolier
306 picks · 405 bans
Bane
286 picks · 273 bans
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 307 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:40
Level UP 70%Team Aion 30%
The model gave 70% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 58:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UndyingBb3px
ViperMo13ei
Drow RangerWoE
Miranaxsvampire
Ember SpiritAinkrad
BaneKrinzhik
TechiesHtrd
Hoodwinkqueezy
Game 2prediction missed17:45
Level UP 70%Team Aion 30%
The model gave 70% on Level UP — the game was taken by Team Aion in 49:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonWoE
Ember SpiritMo13ei
Earth SpiritAinkrad
Clockwerkxsvampire
LargoBb3px
BaneKrinzhik
Hoodwinkqueezy
UndyingHtrd
Game 3prediction correct37:16
Level UP 70%Team Aion 30%
The model gave 70% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenWoE
TinyMo13ei
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Clockwerkxsvampire
TidehunterBb3px
BaneKrinzhik
Hoodwinkqueezy
Witch DoctorHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 84%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3