Level UP vs Team Empire — prediction SSS# · Dota 2

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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3

result vs prediction

Level UPloss 0:2

series probability

28%72%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Team Empirewin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Outworld Destroyeroften banned

Bor@nija · 1 game

Venomanceroften banned

Bor@nija · 1 game

Team Empire

Phoenixoften banned

sayuw · 5 games

40%

Clockwerk

sayuw · 3 games

33%

Juggernautoften banned

Smiling Knight · 2 games

50%

Tusk

sayuw · 2 games

100%

Viperoften banned

Petushara · 2 games

100%

Wraith Kingoften banned

Smiling Knight · 2 games

50%

Ancient Apparitionoften banned

EcNart · 1 game

100%

Axe

Petushara · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

111 picks · 241 bans

54%

Mars

101 picks · 210 bans

49%

Earth Spirit

96 picks · 72 bans

54%

Void Spirit

87 picks · 141 bans

57%

Phoenix

81 picks · 84 bans

58%

Rubick

70 picks · 35 bans

49%

Nyx Assassin

67 picks · 236 bans

61%

Wraith King

66 picks · 70 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%

Hero pool strength56% Team Empire

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total72% Team Empire

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct13:32

Level UP 39%Team Empire 61%

The model gave 61% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 31:17.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo