Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TMTrouble Makers Rebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
No games played over 6 months.
Trouble Makers Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 585 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 439 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 377 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 689 bans
Beastmaster
411 picks · 960 bans
Undying
401 picks · 587 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 207 bans
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 896 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:6
Level UP 79%Trouble Makers Reborn 21%
The model gave 79% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 19:32.
Game 2prediction correct16:3
Level UP 79%Trouble Makers Reborn 21%
The model gave 79% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 24:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 79%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2