Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Twisted Mindsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
Techies
MiLAN · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Daxak · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
MiLAN · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Daxak · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
swedenstrong · 1 game
Twisted Minds
Bloodseekeroften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Dark Willow
QBFY · 1 game
Disruptor
Nagato · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Mirana
QBFY · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
735 picks · 614 bans
Disruptor
559 picks · 485 bans
Beastmaster
431 picks · 1046 bans
Doom
413 picks · 680 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 990 bans
Tiny
394 picks · 374 bans
Undying
390 picks · 608 bans
Mirana
380 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% Twisted Minds
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:6
Level UP 61%Twisted Minds 39%
The model gave 61% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 25:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerDaxak
AlchemistCoblackk
Storm SpiritLorenof
RubickQBFY
VisageOwnedMe
SilencerNagato
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
DisruptorMiLAN
Game 2prediction correct14:2
Level UP 60%Twisted Minds 40%
The model gave 60% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 10:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritLorenof
Monkey KingCoblackk
Naga SirenDaxak
TechiesQBFY
Death ProphetOwnedMe
OracleNagato
Doomswedenstrong
MiranaMiLAN
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 70%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2