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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 16 games
31%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
18%
Mirana
Mirana
Ponlo · 10 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Atoufix · 9 games
56%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 9 games
56%

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 26 games
54%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 24 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
RCY · 22 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 19 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
585 picks · 590 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
397 picks · 389 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
382 picks · 411 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
355 picks · 211 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
334 picks · 719 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 826 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
322 picks · 637 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total76% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:12
Level UP 38%Wildcard Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Level UP in 31:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerrubikon155
75% · 4 games51% · 130 games
Sand KingFayde
Sand King
Brewmaster
BrewmasterPalantimos
46% · 92 games50% · 158 games
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMaTson
49% · 146 games43% · 226 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPonlo
59% · 141 game47% · 86 games
SilencerSpeeed
Silencer
Ringmaster
RingmasterAtoufix
46% · 266 games59% · 49 games
BaneBignum
Bane
Game 2prediction missed38:34
Level UP 34%Wildcard Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Level UP in 52:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingrubikon155
38% · 192 games66% · 75 games
LycanFayde
Lycan
Leshrac
LeshracMaTson
44% · 95 games56% · 99 games
LifestealerYamSun
Lifestealer
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerPalantimos
44% · 203 games58% · 237 games
Monkey KingRCY
Monkey King
Bane
BanePonlo
50% · 81 game50% · 75 games
DisruptorBignum
Disruptor
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAtoufix
44% · 265 games52% · 350 games
BatriderSpeeed
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 76%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2