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Paragon Turbina · BO1
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Yellow Submarinewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 10 games
70%
Techies
Techiessignature
Htrd · 10 games
90%
Windranger
Windranger
chempik · 10 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Htrd · 7 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 7 games
71%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
WoE · 6 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Bb3px · 6 games
33%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Xakoda · 38 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirele · 23 games
61%
Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 17 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
not me · 15 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 14 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Shigetsu · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Batyuk · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
497 picks · 356 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
384 picks · 233 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 638 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 346 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
317 picks · 230 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 397 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
295 picks · 286 bans
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 314 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total63% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:43
Level UP 55%Yellow Submarine 45%
The model gave 55% on Level UP — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 44:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerWoE
50% · 288 games65% · 23 games
LinaRain
Lina
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAinkrad
48% · 228 games50% · 175 games
Timbersawkae
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeBb3px
50% · 231 game54% · 396 games
Tinybottega
Tiny
Techies
TechiesHtrd
44% · 120 games52% · 238 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
43% · 178 games52% · 213 games
ClockwerkWein
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 63%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1