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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 17 games
35%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 12 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 12 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 12 games
25%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 11 games
73%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 11 games
55%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 10 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 22 games
41%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 19 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 19 games
42%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Nefrit · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
575 picks · 591 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
368 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
356 picks · 362 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 507 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
325 picks · 695 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 854 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
307 picks · 628 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total71% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:40
Level UP 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursarubikon155
53% · 94 games57% · 18 games
Troll WarlordNande
Troll Warlord
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerPalantimos
49% · 92 games51% · 152 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirittoshiyb
56% · 47 games41% · 47 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Zeus
ZeusAtoufix
31% · 9 games42% · 54 games
Ringmasteryamich
Ringmaster
Bane
BanePonlo
63% · 78 games44% · 49 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct9:28
Level UP 38%Zero Tenacity 62%
The model gave 62% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerubikon155
44% · 327 games52% · 331 game
GyrocopterNande
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierMaTson
47% · 384 games53% · 119 games
LeshracMirage
Leshrac
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerPalantimos
46% · 239 games49% · 190 games
AbaddonNefrit
Abaddon
Mirana
MiranaPonlo
60% · 132 games49% · 407 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Ringmaster
RingmasterAtoufix
49% · 197 games51% · 232 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 71%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2