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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Leviatanwin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cuyes Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Leviatan

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Xepher · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 6 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 5 games
80%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Stojkov · 5 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
kpii · 4 games
75%

Cuyes Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 4 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Parker · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Parker · 2 games
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 609 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 384 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
360 picks · 144 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 469 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 577 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
319 picks · 154 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 663 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 436 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Leviatan
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:10
Leviatan 44%Cuyes Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Leviatan in 29:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMnz
48% · 29 games48% · 181 game
DoomILICH-
Doom
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
59% · 39 games50% · 24 games
Witch DoctorMjz
Witch Doctor
Pangolier
Pangolierkpii
58% · 65 games
Rubick
RubickXepher
41% · 72 games
Game 2prediction missed30:35
Leviatan 43%Cuyes Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Leviatan in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMnz
57% · 52 games49% · 62 games
SlardarILICH-
Slardar
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkpii
51% · 45 games47% · 166 games
Crystal MaidenMjz
Crystal Maiden
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
57% · 54 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXepher
46% · 77 games
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 63%
Series resultLeviatan 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2