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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Leviatanloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Cuyes Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Leviatan

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Xepher · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Xepher · 7 games
57%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 6 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Mnz · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 6 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
kpii · 5 games
40%

Cuyes Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 7 games
86%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 3 games
67%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Parker · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
422 picks · 616 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 390 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 138 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 469 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 345 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
317 picks · 584 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 640 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
313 picks · 162 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength50% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:21
Leviatan 46%Cuyes Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 26:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinStojkov
41% · 23 games57% · 114 games
EnigmaILICH-
Enigma
Morphling
MorphlingMnz
43% · 32 games32% · 18 games
JakiroMjz
Jakiro
Pangolier
Pangolierkpii
47% · 46 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowXepher
60% · 31 game
Game 2prediction correct40:47
Leviatan 43%Cuyes Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 1:07:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXepher
42% · 42 games53% · 120 games
TimbersawILICH-
Timbersaw
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMnz
41% · 14 games44% · 19 games
LichMjz
Lich
Monkey King
Monkey KingStojkov
58% · 46 games
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkpii
52% · 37 games
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 60%
Series resultCuyes Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2