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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
LFGwin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LFG

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
flacko · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Astral · 2 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nizam` · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Astral · 1 game
100%

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 13 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
54%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 9 games
44%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
56%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
479 picks · 416 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
435 picks · 570 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
432 picks · 229 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
428 picks · 537 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
422 picks · 498 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 744 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 588 bans
45%
Tiny
Tiny
360 picks · 415 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:36
LFG 50%4Pirates 50%
The model gave 50% on LFG — the game was taken by LFG in 44:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenyowaai
56% · 101 game52% · 63 games
LycanOtaker
Lycan
Magnus
MagnusNorma
54% · 195 games50% · 325 games
Beastmasterмистер мораль
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierNizam`
51% · 378 games43% · 277 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenixflacko
52% · 273 games44% · 465 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAstral
50% · 246 games49% · 63 games
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct21:39
LFG 50%4Pirates 50%
The model gave 50% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 44:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinyowaai
50% · 103 games41% · 67 games
Night StalkerOtaker
Night Stalker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNizam`
51% · 127 games44% · 244 games
InvokerNattyNarwhal
Invoker
Enigma
EnigmaNorma
60% · 90 games46% · 279 games
Beastmasterмистер мораль
Beastmaster
Clockwerk
Clockwerkflacko
57% · 243 games50% · 31 game
Venomancerariel
Venomancer
Magnus
MagnusAstral
50% · 123 games53% · 65 games
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed35:15
LFG 49%4Pirates 51%
The model gave 51% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by LFG in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNizam`
53% · 192 games50% · 59 games
Phantom AssassinOtaker
Phantom Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
44% · 128 games53% · 229 games
Earth SpiritNattyNarwhal
Earth Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackNorma
50% · 146 games42% · 277 games
Doomмистер мораль
Doom
Tusk
Tuskflacko
46% · 238 games55% · 83 games
Zeusariel
Zeus
Batrider
BatriderAstral
52% · 312 games55% · 368 games
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 52%
Series resultLFG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3