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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
LFGloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Quantum Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LFG

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 3 games
33%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nizam` · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
flacko · 3 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Astral · 2 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nizam` · 2 games
0%

Quantum Team

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 11 games
64%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
44%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
13%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 7 games
14%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Somnia · 7 games
29%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 416 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
435 picks · 568 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
433 picks · 534 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
431 picks · 229 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 503 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 750 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 586 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
363 picks · 416 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% LFG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% LFG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:44
LFG 53%Quantum Team 47%
The model gave 53% on LFG — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingyowaai
40% · 150 games58% · 150 games
Earth Spiritспортик
Earth Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNorma
36% · 40 games51% · 50 games
Drow Rangerbashka
Drow Ranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNizam`
48% · 117 games54% · 356 games
ClockwerkFezor
Clockwerk
Lich
Lichflacko
51% · 75 games
Batrider
BatriderAstral
46% · 174 games
Game 2prediction correct41:17
LFG 57%Quantum Team 43%
The model gave 57% on LFG — the game was taken by LFG in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteryowaai
51% · 311 games53% · 456 games
Tinyспортик
Tiny
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNorma
41% · 95 games59% · 49 games
Spectrebashka
Spectre
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNizam`
57% · 120 games46% · 447 games
BatriderFezor
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAstral
45% · 198 games
Phoenix
Phoenixflacko
45% · 228 games
Game 3prediction missed26:28
LFG 55%Quantum Team 45%
The model gave 55% on LFG — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 50:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightyowaai
59% · 112 games55% · 82 games
Phantom Assassinbashka
Phantom Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackNorma
51% · 64 games47% · 241 game
Earth Spiritспортик
Earth Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNizam`
46% · 120 games45% · 110 games
ZeusFezor
Zeus
Lich
Lichflacko
47% · 45 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAstral
53% · 92 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLFG · 58%
Series resultQuantum Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3