?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam VII · BO1
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Bane
Bane
KJ · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Thiolicor · 2 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wisper · 2 games
100%
Axe
Axe
Wisper · 1 game
0%
Kez
Kezoften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
100%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 1 game
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuma · 1 game
100%

Aurora Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 61 game
66%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 55 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 52 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 45 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 40 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 36 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
550 picks · 341 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
477 picks · 564 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
444 picks · 234 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
426 picks · 357 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 506 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 847 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
313 picks · 213 bans
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
312 picks · 800 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:20
LGD Gaming 32%Aurora Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYuma
50% · 220 games53% · 68 games
AlchemistNightfall
Alchemist
Batrider
BatriderWisper
53% · 347 games52% · 252 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTaiLung
46% · 346 games48% · 427 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerThiolicor
45% · 198 games60% · 91 game
VenomancerKaori
Venomancer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKJ
43% · 196 games52% · 469 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 78%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1