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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Azure Rayloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 27 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
77%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 21 game
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
71%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 18 games
61%

Azure Ray

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 12 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
天命 · 10 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 10 games
80%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
天命 · 10 games
60%
Silencer
Silencer
天命 · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Chalice · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
668 picks · 701 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
626 picks · 434 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
566 picks · 1119 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 996 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
472 picks · 1181 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
445 picks · 399 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
441 picks · 711 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
420 picks · 1135 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
LGD Gaming 66%Azure Ray 34%
The model gave 66% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
53% · 140 games50% · 192 games
Naga Sirenlou
Naga Siren
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
51% · 325 games51% · 326 games
PangolierSomnus
Pangolier
Broodmother
Broodmotherniu
52% · 215 games49% · 167 games
EnigmaChalice
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfirepLAnet
43% · 347 games53% · 291 game
Clockwerkfy
Clockwerk
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
54% · 57 games43% · 108 games
Shadow Demon天命
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct34:24
LGD Gaming 66%Azure Ray 34%
The model gave 66% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
53% · 136 games52% · 126 games
Juggernautlou
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
43% · 237 games46% · 258 games
Storm SpiritSomnus
Storm Spirit
Underlord
Underlordniu
57% · 78 games54% · 137 games
TidehunterChalice
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderpLAnet
53% · 273 games44% · 165 games
Windrangerfy
Windranger
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
50% · 88 games51% · 126 games
Venomancer天命
Venomancer
Game 3prediction correct36:10
LGD Gaming 67%Azure Ray 33%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzshiro
37% · 35 games52% · 147 games
Void SpiritSomnus
Void Spirit
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
56% · 16 games50% · 164 games
Faceless Voidlou
Faceless Void
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
52% · 223 games46% · 112 games
TidehunterChalice
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderpLAnet
51% · 370 games53% · 221 game
Techiesfy
Techies
Clockwerk
Clockwerky`
53% · 285 games46% · 285 games
Snapfire天命
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 78%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3