DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 24 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
Phoenix
pLAnet · 21 game
Disruptor
pLAnet · 19 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 16 games
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 14 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Pugnasignature
Save- · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 24 games
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 23 games
Tiny
gpK~ · 23 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nightfall · 21 game
Rubicksignature
Save- · 21 game
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
699 picks · 485 bans
Techies
577 picks · 623 bans
Doom
565 picks · 1101 bans
Disruptor
554 picks · 503 bans
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1226 bans
Ember Spirit
472 picks · 1045 bans
Enchantress
464 picks · 678 bans
Pangolier
456 picks · 919 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:26
LGD Gaming 53%BETBOOM TEAM 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 25:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
MorphlingNightfall
Phantom Lancershiro
NecrophosgpK~
Visageniu
TidehunterPure~
Skywrath MagepLAnet
Spirit BreakerTORONTOTOKYO
Undyingy`
RubickSave-
Game 2prediction missed2:23
LGD Gaming 53%BETBOOM TEAM 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierNothingToSay
Ember SpiritgpK~
Morphlingshiro
Monkey KingNightfall
Beastmasterniu
TidehunterPure~
RubickpLAnet
TechiesSave-
Abaddony`
SilencerTORONTOTOKYO
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 56%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2