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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dark Horseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Lion
Lion
Pyw · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
niu · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 12 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Setsu · 12 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 11 games
55%

Dark Horse

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sheep · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 7 games
43%
Lion
Lion
sheep · 3 games
33%
Techies
Techies
sheep · 3 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
sheep · 2 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
sheep · 2 games
50%
Bane
Bane
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sheep · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 747 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 630 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 417 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 744 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
380 picks · 164 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1029 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 730 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total95% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:2
LGD Gaming 82%Dark Horse 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 23:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEcho
48% · 23 games42% · 21 game
Jakiro谢乐zzz张泽中
Jakiro
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritshiro
46% · 23 games47% · 92 games
Iosheep
Io
Mars
Marsniu
60% · 27 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
57% · 27 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitiony`
62% · 13 games
Game 2prediction correct18:3
LGD Gaming 83%Dark Horse 17%
The model gave 83% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 15:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weavershiro
60% · 67 games48% · 304 games
Tinysheep
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerniu
54% · 183 games45% · 220 games
Gyrocopter谢乐zzz张泽中
Gyrocopter
Leshrac
LeshracEcho
60% · 106 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPyw
44% · 124 games
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
48% · 44 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 95%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2