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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EHOMEwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
89%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
63%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 7 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 6 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ame · 5 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 5 games
60%

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 8 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Frisk · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Frisk · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Frisk · 4 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 4 games
25%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Frisk · 4 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddon
xNova · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 851 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
360 picks · 512 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
310 picks · 560 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
278 picks · 490 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 238 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
253 picks · 155 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 516 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
236 picks · 374 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:21
LGD Gaming 59%EHOME 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 25:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
44% · 27 games49% · 34 games
Nature's ProphetChalice
Nature's Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
50% · 28 games47% · 54 games
Troll WarlordSylar
Troll Warlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterFaith_bian
49% · 47 games59% · 47 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskXinQ
46% · 57 games63% · 4 games
LunaFrisk
Luna
Oracle
Oracley`
52% · 77 games50% · 97 games
Earth SpiritxNova
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction missed12:37
LGD Gaming 60%EHOME 40%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 31:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
48% · 48 gameslittle data
ClinkzSylar
Clinkz
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
53% · 130 games48% · 82 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierFaith_bian
60% · 81 game44% · 125 games
MarsChalice
Mars
Lion
LionXinQ
54% · 49 games40% · 94 games
GrimstrokeFrisk
Grimstroke
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
61% · 78 games46% · 85 games
TuskxNova
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 65%
Series resultEHOME 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2