i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Elephantloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 26 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 25 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
Death Prophetoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 16 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
404 picks · 992 bans
Void Spirit
358 picks · 529 bans
Mars
350 picks · 571 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
338 picks · 702 bans
Lion
314 picks · 172 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 229 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 48%
Hero pool strength61% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total79% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:23
LGD Gaming 79%Elephant 21%
The model gave 79% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Elephant in 44:44.
Game 2prediction correct18:5
LGD Gaming 79%Elephant 21%
The model gave 79% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 18:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 79%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2