OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Elephantwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
Miranasignature
XinQ · 17 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
424 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 474 bans
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 613 bans
Puck
304 picks · 690 bans
Mars
296 picks · 517 bans
Hoodwink
279 picks · 117 bans
Lina
259 picks · 338 bans
Dragon Knight
256 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 47%
Hero pool strength62% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total83% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:33
LGD Gaming 83%Elephant 17%
The model gave 83% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Elephant in 34:19.
Game 2prediction missed19:29
LGD Gaming 83%Elephant 17%
The model gave 83% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Elephant in 32:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 83%
Series resultElephant 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2