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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO5
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 3:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 32 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 24 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
XinQ · 18 games
56%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 211 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 619 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 951 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 203 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
362 picks · 342 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 229 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 383 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
264 picks · 195 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:6
LGD Gaming 58%Evil Geniuses 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:23.
Game 2prediction correct25:32
LGD Gaming 58%Evil Geniuses 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 47:11.
Game 3prediction correct26:11
LGD Gaming 58%Evil Geniuses 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 58%
Series resultLGD Gaming 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3