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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 26 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 22 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 19 games
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 15 games
60%

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 33 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 27 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 27 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wisper · 27 games
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 25 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
685 picks · 471 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
629 picks · 661 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
572 picks · 1120 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
515 picks · 485 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
510 picks · 1248 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
496 picks · 1052 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
471 picks · 700 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
445 picks · 928 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:23
LGD Gaming 51%Evil Geniuses 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 14:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
46% · 289 games49% · 152 games
Templar AssassinPakazs
Templar Assassin
Marci
Marcishiro
51% · 151 game56% · 213 games
Storm SpiritChris Luck
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
48% · 174 games49% · 68 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerpLAnet
55% · 125 games50% · 134 games
PugnaMatthew
Pugna
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverny`
49% · 59 games47% · 231 game
SilencerPanda
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct28:18
LGD Gaming 54%Evil Geniuses 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
48% · 19 games52% · 178 games
Naga SirenPakazs
Naga Siren
Broodmother
Broodmothershiro
47% · 205 games54% · 126 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
55% · 344 games49% · 261 game
SnapfireChris Luck
Snapfire
Techies
TechiespLAnet
45% · 234 games52% · 144 games
PugnaMatthew
Pugna
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
49% · 34 games49% · 127 games
LichPanda
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2