PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Lion
Pyw · 14 games
Pucksignature
Setsu · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
Setsu · 13 games
Tusk
Pyw · 13 games
Marsoften banned
niu · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
y` · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 11 games
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 729 bans
Mars
426 picks · 686 bans
Techies
422 picks · 338 bans
Tiny
409 picks · 535 bans
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 891 bans
Crystal Maiden
386 picks · 174 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 184 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:21
LGD Gaming 52%G2 Invictus Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 1:04:08.
Game 2prediction missed9:44
LGD Gaming 52%G2 Invictus Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 42:13.
Game 3prediction missed18:32
LGD Gaming 52%G2 Invictus Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 45:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3