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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
pLAnet · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
92%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 10 games
90%
Ursa
Ursasignature
shiro · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 9 games
56%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 38 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 24 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 24 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
83%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 21 game
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
996 picks · 696 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
640 picks · 466 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
578 picks · 930 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 410 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 409 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1210 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
497 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:27
LGD Gaming 33%Gaimin Gladiators 67%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 21:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackshiro
32% · 39 games53% · 75 games
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
50% · 144 games56% · 56 games
ViperAce
Viper
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzeal
49% · 55 games61% · 26 games
Lone Druiddyrachyo
Lone Druid
Io
Ioy`
44% · 89 games49% · 146 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinpLAnet
51% · 92 games55% · 116 games
DisruptorSeleri
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct13:27
LGD Gaming 38%Gaimin Gladiators 62%
The model gave 62% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendshiro
52% · 132 games52% · 315 games
DoomAce
Doom
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
54% · 103 gameslittle data
Muertadyrachyo
Muerta
Pangolier
Pangolierzeal
56% · 320 games41% · 120 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
56% · 315 games41% · 101 game
GrimstroketOfu
Grimstroke
Clockwerk
Clockwerky`
48% · 301 game51% · 635 games
RubickSeleri
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 77%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2