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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 20 games
85%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 20 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 15 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 51 game
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 36 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 30 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 28 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 27 games
74%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 27 games
78%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 27 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
737 picks · 582 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
610 picks · 524 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
556 picks · 1291 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
551 picks · 1096 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
497 picks · 559 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
474 picks · 955 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1120 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
454 picks · 648 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total72% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:13
LGD Gaming 38%Gaimin Gladiators 62%
The model gave 62% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 57:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
63% · 132 games48% · 166 games
Morphlingdyrachyo
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
50% · 496 games54% · 51 game
SniperQuinn
Sniper
Visage
Visageniu
51% · 191 game53% · 265 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Pugna
Pugnay`
51% · 133 games38% · 232 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Earthshaker
EarthshakerpLAnet
49% · 148 games47% · 386 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed48:40
LGD Gaming 36%Gaimin Gladiators 64%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 53:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidshiro
49% · 169 games51% · 151 game
Morphlingdyrachyo
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
44% · 299 games59% · 52 games
Dark SeerAce
Dark Seer
Axe
Axeniu
51% · 30 games58% · 101 game
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitiony`
47% · 48 games44% · 136 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnapLAnet
51% · 86 games51% · 192 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 72%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2