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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 27 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 26 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 22 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 19 games
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 17 games
65%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 16 games
75%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 55 games
73%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 42 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 37 games
68%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 33 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 33 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 32 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 30 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 29 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 470 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
637 picks · 667 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
574 picks · 1124 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 483 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
513 picks · 1251 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
504 picks · 1059 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
470 picks · 711 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
446 picks · 933 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total73% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:29
LGD Gaming 40%Gaimin Gladiators 60%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancershiro
50% · 59 games48% · 98 games
PudgeAce
Pudge
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
46% · 259 games54% · 39 games
HuskarQuinn
Huskar
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
54% · 202 games46% · 239 games
Morphlingdyrachyo
Morphling
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
58% · 31 game48% · 135 games
Spirit BreakerSeleri
Spirit Breaker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagepLAnet
50% · 108 games54% · 148 games
PugnatOfu
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct13:30
LGD Gaming 38%Gaimin Gladiators 62%
The model gave 62% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageshiro
52% · 82 games57% · 6 games
MeepoAce
Meepo
Lina
LinaNothingToSay
53% · 215 games50% · 183 games
Morphlingdyrachyo
Morphling
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
54% · 333 games46% · 105 games
Dragon KnightQuinn
Dragon Knight
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonpLAnet
53% · 131 game47% · 419 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Chen
Cheny`
54% · 64 games43% · 112 games
Spirit BreakerSeleri
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 73%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2