?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 23 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 22 games
59%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 19 games
47%
Medusa
Medusasignature
shiro · 19 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 17 games
71%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 39 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 33 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 33 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 31 game
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 31 game
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 29 games
55%
Techies
Techiessignature
tOfu · 29 games
69%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 29 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
257 picks · 133 bans
43%
Pangolier
Pangolier
189 picks · 384 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
181 picks · 257 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
169 picks · 351 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
168 picks · 303 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 226 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
161 picks · 95 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total74% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:6
LGD Gaming 33%Gaimin Gladiators 67%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weavershiro
33% · 13 games60% · 133 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNothingToSay
44% · 112 games54% · 53 games
Svendyrachyo
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerniu
36% · 68 games45% · 41 game
BrewmasterAce
Brewmaster
Chen
Cheny`
51% · 37 games50% · 10 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Grimstroke
GrimstrokepLAnet
47% · 82 games62% · 75 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed31:13
LGD Gaming 34%Gaimin Gladiators 66%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightshiro
48% · 36 games47% · 73 games
Templar AssassinQuinn
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
Bristlebackniu
41% · 13 games58% · 36 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
46% · 146 games57% · 66 games
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Muerta
MuertapLAnet
49% · 22 games62% · 79 games
Skywrath MagetOfu
Skywrath Mage
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
41% · 83 games52% · 46 games
Vengeful SpiritSeleri
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 74%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2