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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 23 games
43%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 18 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 16 games
44%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 16 games
69%

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 30 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
tOfu · 29 games
69%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 26 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 26 games
62%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 26 games
54%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 25 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 23 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
181 picks · 383 bans
55%
Sven
Sven
176 picks · 253 bans
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
171 picks · 156 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
167 picks · 72 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
155 picks · 236 bans
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
150 picks · 86 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total67% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:27
LGD Gaming 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 50:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunashiro
41% · 37 games71% · 13 games
NecrophosQuinn
Necrophos
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNothingToSay
49% · 99 games58% · 54 games
Alchemistdyrachyo
Alchemist
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerniu
48% · 47 games54% · 123 games
Primal BeastAce
Primal Beast
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonpLAnet
42% · 107 games51% · 56 games
GrimstroketOfu
Grimstroke
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
45% · 111 games53% · 155 games
SilencerSeleri
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct8:25
LGD Gaming 41%Gaimin Gladiators 59%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 40:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenshiro
55% · 92 games49% · 89 games
Queen of PainQuinn
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
42% · 191 game45% · 22 games
Wraith KingAce
Wraith King
Magnus
Magnusniu
51% · 71 game53% · 44 games
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
Chaos Knight
Muerta
MuertapLAnet
47% · 40 games46% · 92 games
Dark WillowtOfu
Dark Willow
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
57% · 42 games54% · 189 games
Nature's ProphetSeleri
Nature's Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 67%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2