Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Tinysignature
XinQ · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
Dazzlesignature
y` · 12 games
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
Chensignature
y` · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
Marcisignature
XinQ · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 9 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
361 picks · 340 bans
Tusk
347 picks · 338 bans
Mirana
255 picks · 247 bans
Rubick
229 picks · 189 bans
Crystal Maiden
225 picks · 149 bans
Pangolier
205 picks · 535 bans
Snapfire
193 picks · 114 bans
Leshrac
191 picks · 417 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total80% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:23
LGD Gaming 80%Invictus Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 1:10:04.
Game 2prediction correct24:9
LGD Gaming 80%Invictus Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 18:21.
Game 3prediction correct38:5
LGD Gaming 80%Invictus Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 80%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3