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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KEVwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Lion
Lion
Pyw · 14 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Setsu · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 12 games
42%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
y` · 12 games
58%
Luna
Luna
shiro · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
shiro · 11 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
niu · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 9 games
56%

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
ELeVeN · 6 games
67%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
75%
Omniknight
Omniknight
ELeVeN · 4 games
100%
Techies
Techies
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 3 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
387 picks · 636 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 599 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
370 picks · 304 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
355 picks · 760 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
339 picks · 380 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
332 picks · 201 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% KEV
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:10
LGD Gaming 70%KEV 30%
The model gave 70% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weavershiro
53% · 62 games63% · 74 games
LeshracButterflyEffect
Leshrac
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSetsu
41% · 19 games45% · 116 games
BrewmasterELeVeN
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal Beastniu
51% · 150 games49% · 201 game
Faceless Voidflyfly
Faceless Void
Tiny
TinyPyw
46% · 119 games56% · 71 game
ChenUndyne_
Chen
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirity`
43% · 112 games
Game 2prediction missed18:36
LGD Gaming 69%KEV 31%
The model gave 69% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by KEV in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
50% · 132 games57% · 75 games
RazorELeVeN
Razor
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
54% · 135 games41% · 96 games
TuskButterflyEffect
Tusk
Windranger
WindrangerSetsu
43% · 105 games55% · 151 game
Monkey Kingflyfly
Monkey King
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
50% · 4 games49% · 124 games
DisruptorUndyne_
Disruptor
Lich
Lichy`
53% · 70 games
Game 3prediction missed17:43
LGD Gaming 68%KEV 32%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by KEV in 42:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierSetsu
49% · 141 game49% · 223 games
TuskButterflyEffect
Tusk
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
53% · 89 games54% · 106 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerniu
49% · 97 games54% · 25 games
OmniknightELeVeN
Omniknight
Batrider
BatriderPyw
47% · 114 games50% · 328 games
DisruptorUndyne_
Disruptor
Rubick
Rubicky`
46% · 241 game
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 85%
Series resultKEV 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3