LGD Gaming vs LBZS — prediction DPC2S—К1Д 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

LGD Gamingwin 2:0

series probability

45%55%

probability at match start · final 2:0

LBZSloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

LBZS

Earth Spirit

CatYou · 4 games

100%

Undyingoften banned

xiaofu · 4 games

75%

Elder Titan

xiaofu · 3 games

33%

Medusaoften banned

MS · 3 games

100%

Tusk

CatYou · 3 games

33%

Centaur Warrunner

Irving · 2 games

50%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Irving · 2 games

50%

Troll Warlordoften banned

MS · 2 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

85 picks · 196 bans

53%

Mars

82 picks · 172 bans

48%

Earth Spirit

73 picks · 59 bans

57%

Void Spirit

66 picks · 119 bans

56%

Rubick

55 picks · 30 bans

49%

Undying

55 picks · 76 bans

58%

Phoenix

53 picks · 68 bans

58%

Wraith King

51 picks · 55 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength57% LBZS

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total55% LBZS

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed26:16

LGD Gaming 46%LBZS 54%

The model gave 54% on LBZS — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 27:07.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo