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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 18 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 16 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
XinQ · 12 games
92%
Io
Iosignature
XinQ · 11 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
91%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Xiao8 · 11 games
82%
Luna
Lunasignature
Ame · 11 games
73%

LBZS

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
CatYou · 3 games
33%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 3 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
CatYou · 2 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 2 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Molasses · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
398 picks · 286 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 547 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
311 picks · 176 bans
44%
Weaver
Weaver
300 picks · 716 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
288 picks · 351 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
236 picks · 404 bans
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
231 picks · 155 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 312 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 43%
Hero pool strength65% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total95% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:17
LGD Gaming 83%LBZS 17%
The model gave 83% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
45% · 126 games47% · 241 game
Death ProphetMolasses
Death Prophet
Invoker
InvokerNothingToSay
56% · 77 games51% · 177 games
Storm SpiritShanks
Storm Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFaith_bian
48% · 44 games48% · 154 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
56% · 160 games
Pangolier
PangolierXinQ
52% · 165 games
Game 2prediction correct37:5
LGD Gaming 83%LBZS 17%
The model gave 83% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 27:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaAme
51% · 103 games45% · 148 games
TimbersawMolasses
Timbersaw
Lycan
LycanFaith_bian
45% · 66 games48% · 173 games
Death ProphetShanks
Death Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
53% · 110 games56% · 278 games
BaneCatYou
Bane
Weaver
WeaverXinQ
54% · 170 games
Tidehunter
Tidehuntery`
48% · 150 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 95%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2