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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 10 games
90%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
80%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ame · 9 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
75%

Nigma Galaxy

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
GH · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
KuroKy · 11 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 11 games
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
30%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
56%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 9 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 9 games
100%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
577 picks · 445 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
417 picks · 887 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 581 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 465 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 178 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
316 picks · 206 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
311 picks · 367 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
293 picks · 568 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:26
LGD Gaming 68%Nigma Galaxy 32%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
50% · 58 games57% · 45 games
BristlebackMiracle-
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
45% · 109 games57% · 76 games
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFaith_bian
58% · 135 games50% · 217 games
RazorSumaiL
Razor
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
45% · 100 games45% · 37 games
Crystal MaidenGH
Crystal Maiden
Marci
MarciXinQ
49% · 116 games46% · 143 games
DawnbreakerKuroKy
Dawnbreaker
Game 2prediction missed5:29
LGD Gaming 68%Nigma Galaxy 32%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 22:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightAme
52% · 149 games52% · 131 game
BloodseekerMiracle-
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
46% · 198 games46% · 336 games
TinySumaiL
Tiny
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFaith_bian
55% · 163 games42% · 125 games
DawnbreakerMinD_ContRoL
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
61% · 133 games45% · 51 game
ZeusKuroKy
Zeus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinXinQ
58% · 97 games44% · 97 games
Winter WyvernGH
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction correct48:11
LGD Gaming 67%Nigma Galaxy 33%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomFaith_bian
51% · 143 games54% · 113 games
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
Beastmaster
Juggernaut
JuggernautAme
55% · 93 games52% · 136 games
Monkey KingMiracle-
Monkey King
Zeus
ZeusNothingToSay
42% · 111 games45% · 214 games
TinySumaiL
Tiny
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
47% · 211 games52% · 108 games
Winter WyvernGH
Winter Wyvern
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritXinQ
49% · 90 games55% · 77 games
Nyx AssassinKuroKy
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 81%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3