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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 27 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
KJ · 21 game
57%
Bane
Banesignature
KJ · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 13 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Thiolicor · 12 games
58%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 12 games
58%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 36 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 28 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
41%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 20 games
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 17 games
65%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
508 picks · 353 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
357 picks · 416 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
343 picks · 634 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
330 picks · 470 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
316 picks · 173 bans
49%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
308 picks · 588 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
308 picks · 342 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
305 picks · 220 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:29
LGD Gaming 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 50:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidYuma
59% · 56 games52% · 125 games
Nature's ProphetLorenof
Nature's Prophet
Viper
ViperTopson
50% · 112 games58% · 88 games
NecrophosDavai
Necrophos
Axe
AxeWisper
44% · 237 games53% · 310 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
46% · 217 games48% · 195 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
41% · 205 games55% · 109 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed44:42
LGD Gaming 52%Nigma Galaxy 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:02:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosYuma
49% · 65 games54% · 247 games
PuckLorenof
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
46% · 248 games51% · 150 games
LargoDavai
Largo
Riki
RikiTopson
45% · 7 games60% · 92 games
ClinkzSumaiL
Clinkz
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
43% · 153 games54% · 89 games
Winter WyvernGH
Winter Wyvern
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKJ
43% · 195 games56% · 90 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 59%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2