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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 23 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 22 games
59%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 19 games
47%
Medusa
Medusasignature
shiro · 19 games
74%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 17 games
71%

nouns

Techies
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 13 games
77%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
YamSun · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugna
Lelis · 7 games
29%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magesignature
YamSun · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
194 picks · 399 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
190 picks · 260 bans
52%
Sven
Sven
174 picks · 253 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
171 picks · 360 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
169 picks · 311 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
164 picks · 99 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:41
LGD Gaming 65%nouns 35%
The model gave 65% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 1:06:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenshiro
56% · 115 games47% · 35 games
Troll WarlordK1
Troll Warlord
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNothingToSay
46% · 69 games51% · 57 games
BrewmasterMoo
Brewmaster
Windranger
Windrangerniu
51% · 33 games51% · 67 games
Earth SpiritGunnar
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
40% · 98 games53% · 120 games
Nature's ProphetYamSun
Nature's Prophet
Dark Willow
Dark WillowpLAnet
46% · 99 games56% · 135 games
Skywrath MageLelis
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct21:10
LGD Gaming 67%nouns 33%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenshiro
51% · 111 games50% · 99 games
Templar AssassinGunnar
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
Bristlebackniu
38% · 16 games49% · 97 games
SlarkK1
Slark
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
56% · 119 games56% · 43 games
BrewmasterMoo
Brewmaster
Muerta
MuertapLAnet
43% · 40 games45% · 94 games
Shadow DemonLelis
Shadow Demon
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
48% · 205 games54% · 158 games
Nature's ProphetYamSun
Nature's Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 79%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2