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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phoenix Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 18 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
80%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 14 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 12 games
92%
Io
Iosignature
XinQ · 11 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Xiao8 · 11 games
82%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
XinQ · 11 games
73%

Phoenix Gaming

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
pLAnet · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
shiro · 3 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 2 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 2 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
pLAnet · 2 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
zzq · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 528 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
351 picks · 258 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 204 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
310 picks · 719 bans
56%
Io
Io
239 picks · 584 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
234 picks · 152 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
233 picks · 717 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 309 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 40%
Hero pool strength70% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:9
LGD Gaming 85%Phoenix Gaming 15%
The model gave 85% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
44% · 179 games44% · 115 games
Phantom AssassinM77
Phantom Assassin
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
55% · 20 games53% · 145 games
Death Prophetzone-
Death Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
61% · 204 games47% · 330 games
MarsShining
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
42% · 278 games51% · 78 games
HoodwinkHelios
Hoodwink
Undying
Undyingy`
48% · 101 game61% · 114 games
BaneLwwnb
Bane
Game 2prediction correct31:15
LGD Gaming 84%Phoenix Gaming 16%
The model gave 84% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanFaith_bian
50% · 95 games47% · 31 game
SpectreM77
Spectre
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
50% · 20 games51% · 126 games
Ember Spiritzone-
Ember Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaAme
56% · 155 games49% · 47 games
ViperShining
Viper
Dark Willow
Dark WillowXinQ
51% · 145 games48% · 241 game
MarsHelios
Mars
Bane
Baney`
53% · 148 games43% · 118 games
GrimstrokeLwwnb
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 96%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2