?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Piggy Killerloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
83%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 17 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 15 games
93%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 13 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 11 games
55%

Piggy Killer

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Srf · 7 games
86%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Frisk · 7 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
mercy · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Victoria · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Srf · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
Frisk · 5 games
80%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
flyfly · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
708 picks · 596 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 490 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1080 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
428 picks · 756 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 1009 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 361 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
376 picks · 203 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
374 picks · 538 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:7
LGD Gaming 70%Piggy Killer 30%
The model gave 70% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 23:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
54% · 74 games54% · 193 games
Terrorbladeflyfly
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
53% · 316 games50% · 60 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
45% · 105 games42% · 28 games
Spirit BreakerSrf
Spirit Breaker
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
60% · 266 games43% · 311 games
SnapfireFrisk
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
50% · 26 games44% · 195 games
Crystal Maidenmercy
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed15:31
LGD Gaming 68%Piggy Killer 32%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistshiro
51% · 123 games52% · 299 games
DoomSrf
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
48% · 240 games45% · 146 games
Ursaflyfly
Ursa
Underlord
Underlordniu
51% · 116 games48% · 83 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
48% · 141 game52% · 65 games
Spirit BreakerFrisk
Spirit Breaker
Silencer
Silencery`
55% · 126 games51% · 153 games
Skywrath Magemercy
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct26:10
LGD Gaming 64%Piggy Killer 36%
The model gave 64% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageshiro
42% · 60 games51% · 112 games
Alchemistflyfly
Alchemist
Magnus
Magnusniu
51% · 128 games53% · 213 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerNothingToSay
43% · 83 games63% · 194 games
BeastmasterSrf
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
49% · 244 games48% · 257 games
RubickFrisk
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maideny`
43% · 361 game57% · 100 games
Skywrath Magemercy
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 80%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3