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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 28 games
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 24 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 22 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 20 games
55%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 48 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 30 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Silencer
Silencer
Kaori · 23 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
643 picks · 688 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
517 picks · 342 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
443 picks · 960 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 929 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 857 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
389 picks · 345 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
387 picks · 995 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 858 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:36
LGD Gaming 47%PSG Quest 53%
The model gave 53% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
56% · 203 games49% · 96 games
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
49% · 242 games52% · 209 games
Storm SpiritNo!ob
Storm Spirit
Enigma
Enigmaniu
48% · 267 games48% · 178 games
MarsMalik
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
48% · 108 games43% · 737 games
RubickKaori
Rubick
Tiny
TinypLAnet
46% · 514 games60% · 114 games
IoOmaR
Io
Game 2prediction missed29:7
LGD Gaming 46%PSG Quest 54%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealershiro
54% · 88 games39% · 36 games
MuertaTA2000
Muerta
Windranger
WindrangerNothingToSay
47% · 111 games53% · 237 games
Storm SpiritNo!ob
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierniu
48% · 417 games44% · 300 games
Primal BeastMalik
Primal Beast
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
59% · 202 games46% · 538 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Clockwerk
Clockwerky`
51% · 382 games54% · 89 games
IoKaori
Io
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2