Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай. Финал · BO5
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 3:1series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Banesignature
y` · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 18 games
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 16 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 15 games
Lycansignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
Leshracsignature
Xiao8 · 12 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
547 picks · 388 bans
Queen of Pain
459 picks · 554 bans
Mars
448 picks · 646 bans
Weaver
434 picks · 844 bans
Snapfire
359 picks · 185 bans
Kunkka
341 picks · 536 bans
Spirit Breaker
339 picks · 572 bans
Wraith King
281 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 63%
Hero pool strength65% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total82% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
LGD Gaming 82%Royal Never Give Up 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up.
Game 2prediction correct29:22
LGD Gaming 82%Royal Never Give Up 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:54.
Game 3prediction correct41:13
LGD Gaming 82%Royal Never Give Up 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:55.
Game 4prediction correct
LGD Gaming 82%Royal Never Give Up 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 82%
Series resultLGD Gaming 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4