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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 21 game
86%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 21 game
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 15 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
57%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 19 games
68%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 18 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
732 picks · 545 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
603 picks · 519 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
559 picks · 1096 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
555 picks · 1256 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
520 picks · 577 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
472 picks · 938 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1083 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
454 picks · 651 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:11
LGD Gaming 61%Talon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 54:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
56% · 150 games59% · 113 games
Naga Siren23savage
Naga Siren
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
50% · 404 games51% · 278 games
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Mars
Marsniu
42% · 130 games35% · 133 games
WindrangerMikoto
Windranger
Techies
TechiespLAnet
51% · 325 games50% · 104 games
Shadow DemonQ
Shadow Demon
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
55% · 53 games47% · 434 games
RubickOli
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct32:25
LGD Gaming 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 47:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekershiro
55% · 144 games53% · 443 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
52% · 215 games50% · 202 games
Slark23savage
Slark
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
55% · 379 games41% · 174 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfirepLAnet
46% · 307 games51% · 386 games
EnchantressQ
Enchantress
Undying
Undyingy`
50% · 314 games47% · 154 games
LichOli
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 67%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2