Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Alchemist
NothingToSay · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
y` · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Faith_bian · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ame · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 1 game
Oracle
y` · 1 game
Team Aster
Centaur Warrunner
Xxs · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Monet · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
LaNm · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Monet · 1 game
Earth Spirit
BoBoKa · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
LaNm · 1 game
Grimstroke
LaNm · 1 game
Linaoften banned
White丶Album · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
108 picks · 233 bans
Mars
99 picks · 205 bans
Earth Spirit
94 picks · 72 bans
Void Spirit
82 picks · 139 bans
Phoenix
79 picks · 80 bans
Rubick
67 picks · 33 bans
Nyx Assassin
64 picks · 230 bans
Undying
64 picks · 85 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:27
LGD Gaming 44%Team Aster 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 56:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RikiAme
Wraith KingMonet
RubickNothingToSay
PuckWhite丶Album
MarsFaith_bian
Dragon KnightXxs
Monkey KingXinQ
PhoenixBoBoKa
Ancient Apparitiony`
AbaddonLaNm
Game 2prediction missed28:11
LGD Gaming 46%Team Aster 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingAme
Naga SirenMonet
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Queen of PainWhite丶Album
BeastmasterFaith_bian
PuckBoBoKa
EarthshakerXinQ
PangolierXxs
Ancient Apparitiony`
AbaddonLaNm
Game 3prediction correct37:50
LGD Gaming 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:28:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAme
Monkey KingMonet
BeastmasterFaith_bian
EnchantressBoBoKa
RikiNothingToSay
MagnusWhite丶Album
PangolierXinQ
MarsXxs
Keeper of the Lighty`
Nyx AssassinLaNm
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 57%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3