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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 14 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 9 games
78%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%
Weaver
Weaversignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 7 games
100%

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 27 games
74%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 23 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fantasy · 21 game
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 19 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
455 picks · 277 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
437 picks · 598 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 471 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
356 picks · 482 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
352 picks · 769 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 503 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
311 picks · 463 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
305 picks · 449 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total75% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:31
LGD Gaming 63%Team Aster 37%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAme
47% · 91 game56% · 95 games
Chaos KnightMonet
Chaos Knight
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
46% · 311 games51% · 242 games
Death ProphetOri
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
52% · 217 games55% · 238 games
Dragon KnightXxs
Dragon Knight
Io
IoXinQ
45% · 153 games52% · 127 games
PhoenixBoBoKa
Phoenix
Silencer
Silencery`
49% · 21 game48% · 91 game
Shadow ShamanFantasy
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed15:26
LGD Gaming 62%Team Aster 38%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaNothingToSay
40% · 274 games57% · 261 game
MedusaMonet
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAme
46% · 247 games55% · 271 game
Dragon KnightOri
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
46% · 424 games51% · 81 game
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Io
IoXinQ
43% · 229 games56% · 147 games
PhoenixBoBoKa
Phoenix
Undying
Undyingy`
48% · 70 games56% · 484 games
BaneFantasy
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 75%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2