?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
y` · 17 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
XinQ · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 9 games
89%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 23 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
88%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 13 games
62%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ori · 12 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Monet · 12 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xwy · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
881 picks · 612 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
626 picks · 438 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
533 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 433 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
529 picks · 845 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
474 picks · 327 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
464 picks · 987 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
428 picks · 310 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total60% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:28
LGD Gaming 60%Team Aster 40%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:43.
Game 2prediction correct27:11
LGD Gaming 60%Team Aster 40%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 28:12.
Game 3prediction missed6:27
LGD Gaming 60%Team Aster 40%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 24:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 60%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3