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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 18 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 17 games
94%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
67%

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 20 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 18 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
65%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
582 picks · 506 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
483 picks · 1193 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
481 picks · 905 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
427 picks · 1086 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
413 picks · 871 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
406 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
398 picks · 573 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total52% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:14
LGD Gaming 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancershiro
46% · 46 games52% · 168 games
MorphlingMonet
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
51% · 272 games48% · 166 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Magnus
Magnusniu
47% · 131 game48% · 110 games
Spirit BreakerXxs
Spirit Breaker
Techies
TechiespLAnet
53% · 183 games49% · 144 games
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
Keeper of the Light
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maideny`
49% · 182 games55% · 226 games
SilencerFantasy
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed25:11
LGD Gaming 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonshiro
47% · 87 games57% · 105 games
Monkey KingMonet
Monkey King
Windranger
WindrangerNothingToSay
47% · 121 game60% · 164 games
BeastmasterXxs
Beastmaster
Magnus
Magnusniu
48% · 161 game41% · 169 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Techies
TechiespLAnet
54% · 269 games43% · 207 games
RubickBoBoKa
Rubick
Venomancer
Venomancery`
53% · 111 games50% · 104 games
SilencerFantasy
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 52%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2