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The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 25 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 23 games
78%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
70%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 19 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
83%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 17 games
82%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
81%
Axe
Axesignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
80%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 35 games
77%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 28 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
309 picks · 176 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
282 picks · 406 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
281 picks · 540 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
269 picks · 92 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
263 picks · 370 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
58%
Luna
Luna
231 picks · 326 bans
51%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
212 picks · 371 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:9
LGD Gaming 58%Team Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
41% · 118 games56% · 112 games
TinyYatoro
Tiny
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNothingToSay
47% · 160 games51% · 224 games
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Void Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerFaith_bian
43% · 72 games54% · 129 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernXinQ
48% · 90 games46% · 16 games
Vengeful SpiritCollapse
Vengeful Spirit
Clockwerk
Clockwerky`
47% · 134 games59% · 93 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct15:10
LGD Gaming 61%Team Spirit 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 25:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyAme
50% · 182 games46% · 73 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
52% · 70 games48% · 55 games
RazorTORONTOTOKYO
Razor
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFaith_bian
44% · 62 games51% · 182 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageXinQ
48% · 24 games52% · 102 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverny`
57% · 115 games47% · 41 game
IoMiposhka
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 68%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2