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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
91%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
60%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 10 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 9 games
67%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 14 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 13 games
85%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
579 picks · 443 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
416 picks · 895 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 575 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
351 picks · 179 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 463 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
317 picks · 197 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
317 picks · 369 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
291 picks · 567 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total67% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:18
LGD Gaming 61%Team Spirit 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidAme
44% · 5 games42% · 110 games
LunaYatoro
Luna
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFaith_bian
51% · 81 game54% · 206 games
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
50% · 226 games46% · 93 games
ViperCollapse
Viper
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernXinQ
54% · 104 games46% · 91 game
Skywrath MageMiposhka
Skywrath Mage
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
52% · 157 games51% · 73 games
MarciMira
Marci
Game 2prediction correct30:13
LGD Gaming 58%Team Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistAme
40% · 35 games50% · 62 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFaith_bian
53% · 78 games51% · 104 games
ViperCollapse
Viper
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
50% · 200 games52% · 257 games
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Ember Spirit
Dazzle
Dazzley`
47% · 29 games39% · 56 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Tiny
TinyXinQ
51% · 267 games56% · 130 games
MarciMira
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 67%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2