PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO5
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:3series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Team Spiritwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
Tinysignature
XinQ · 16 games
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 20 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 18 games
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
694 picks · 507 bans
Puck
504 picks · 979 bans
Dawnbreaker
412 picks · 525 bans
Snapfire
386 picks · 197 bans
Marci
384 picks · 695 bans
Winter Wyvern
326 picks · 317 bans
Zeus
299 picks · 314 bans
Monkey King
289 picks · 615 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total74% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:16
LGD Gaming 64%Team Spirit 36%
The model gave 64% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeAme
Phantom LancerYatoro
PuckNothingToSay
TuskTORONTOTOKYO
ViperFaith_bian
EnigmaCollapse
Cheny`
TinyMira
RubickXinQ
DazzleMiposhka
Game 2prediction missed30:43
LGD Gaming 65%Team Spirit 35%
The model gave 65% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:15:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenAme
Monkey KingYatoro
Keeper of the LightNothingToSay
Queen of PainTORONTOTOKYO
RazorFaith_bian
ViperCollapse
Dazzley`
MarciMira
TuskXinQ
BaneMiposhka
Game 3prediction missed5:14
LGD Gaming 64%Team Spirit 36%
The model gave 64% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenAme
SvenYatoro
Death ProphetNothingToSay
BeastmasterCollapse
TimbersawFaith_bian
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
EarthshakerXinQ
ZeusMira
Baney`
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Game 4prediction missed28:28
LGD Gaming 64%Team Spirit 36%
The model gave 64% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightAme
BristlebackYatoro
KunkkaNothingToSay
Queen of PainTORONTOTOKYO
RazorFaith_bian
AxeCollapse
Earth SpiritXinQ
ChenMiposhka
Ioy`
RubickMira
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 74%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4