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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 18 games
89%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 29 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
754 picks · 632 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 533 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
535 picks · 1052 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1318 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1176 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
458 picks · 949 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
448 picks · 465 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
440 picks · 226 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:31
LGD Gaming 50%Tundra Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
58% · 117 games44% · 177 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
55% · 123 games44% · 155 games
BloodseekerSkiter
Bloodseeker
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
55% · 253 games44% · 100 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Techies
TechiespLAnet
54% · 153 games41% · 193 games
Keeper of the LightImmersion
Keeper of the Light
Venomancer
Venomancery`
59% · 57 games49% · 78 games
Shadow DemonSneyking
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed19:18
LGD Gaming 48%Tundra Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marcishiro
47% · 221 game50% · 295 games
Doom33
Doom
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
50% · 310 games49% · 195 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Windranger
WindrangerNothingToSay
43% · 96 games47% · 164 games
BloodseekerSkiter
Bloodseeker
Techies
TechiespLAnet
54% · 193 games53% · 182 games
Keeper of the LightImmersion
Keeper of the Light
Io
Ioy`
51% · 75 games56% · 59 games
OracleSneyking
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 53%
Accuracy by game0 of 2